UA Professors Talk Bernie Sanders’ Upstart Presidential Candidacy

Editor’s note: With the 2016 presidential election ramping up, political experts at The University of Alabama will occasionally comment on candidates for the Democratic and Republican nominations for president and on other influential races around the country. To check on a potential source for your political story, contact Bobby Mathews in UA media relations, 205/348-4956 or bwmathews1@ur.ua.edu.

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — While BernieMania is running wild as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) tours the country in his bid to become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, the initial rush of excitement for his candidacy could wane as the Democratic Primary draws closer, said a group of political science professors at The University of Alabama.

Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, presents an alternative to Hillary Clinton, the presumed front-runner for the Democrat’s nomination.

“In elections where there is a clear front-runner, like the Democratic primary, there’s a tendency for a kind of ‘anybody but Hilary’ bandwagon,” said Dr. Stephen Borrelli, professor of political science at The University of Alabama. “Some Democrat voters don’t like her baggage, and people are still angry about the bank bailouts in 2011.

“Some of Sanders’ support is that Democrats who don’t want to support Hilary don’t see anyone else to support,” Borrelli said. “But, another part of his popularity right now is that he’s seen as a clear alternative to Hilary, and that he doesn’t have a muzzle—he says what he thinks. A candidate who doesn’t have to take a week to craft a statement seems refreshing.”

Indeed, Sanders often seems to shoot from the hip, and his plain-spoken language and clear positions often entice support from across the political spectrum. According to published reports, he’s drawn larger crowds than any other candidate this campaign season—and that includes GOP candidates like Scott Walker, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

“Sanders’ success is not only coming from the Democratic base, however,” said Dr. Richard Fording, chair of the UA political science department. “He is neck and neck with Hillary Clinton among independents. In addition to his economic message, Sanders comes across as a ‘straight shooter,’ which I think many people find refreshing these days.”

For all his early success, though, Sanders still trails Clinton in the polls—at least for now.

“Bernie Sanders is surprising a lot of people with the success that he is having thus far,” said Fording. “In some polls, he is now getting 25-30 percent of the vote in matchups against the Democratic field, including Hillary Clinton. I think this can be attributed to a few different factors.

“He is running on a theme that some have termed ‘economic populism,’ and I think his early success indicates that the economic recovery has not reached many voters,” Fording said. “Economic inequality continues to be an important issue for many working class and younger voters.”

But can he win? These UA professors think it’s a long-shot, at best. Instead, they say, Sanders’ candidacy could move Clinton away from the centrist positions she’s crafted as a senator and secretary of state and into more liberal ideology.

“Bernie Sanders has very little chance to secure the Democratic nomination,” said Dr. George Hawley, UA assistant professor of political science. “He is surging right now because he is offering a progressive alternative to Clinton. As an avowed socialist, Sanders can expect support from the more liberal elements of the Democratic grassroots. But he can also expect plenty of hostility from a Democratic establishment that is primarily concerned with electability.

“Although Sanders will probably not win the nomination, his campaign may nonetheless have consequences,” Hawley said. “He may force Clinton to move to the left on economic issues to secure her support from the Democratic base. Whether that will help or hurt her in the general election remains to be seen.”

Fording largely agrees. He sees Sanders’ candidacy as something of a reminder for Clinton on where the Democratic Party’s progressive ideology stands. Sanders is also benefitting from being the only horse in the race at the moment.

“I do not think that Sanders has a realistic chance of challenging Hillary Clinton for the nomination,” Fording said. “Hillary has not really begun to campaign yet, and there are no other Democratic candidates to share the spotlight with Sanders at the moment.

“In addition, Hillary enjoys a huge lead among African-American voters, and that is not going to change,” Fording said. “It will be impossible for Sanders to win any state with a significant minority population for this reason, alone.

“As the election draws closer, many of Sanders’ supporters will realize that Clinton is their best chance to prevent a Republican from winning, and, in the end, I believe most will abandon him on election day,” Fording said.

“His role in this election, I believe, will be to provide the progressive base of the Democratic Party with a voice,” Fording said, “and to keep Hillary Clinton from straying too far to the center.”

UA’s department of political science is part of the College of Arts and Sciences, UA’s largest division and the largest liberal arts college in the state. Students from the College have won numerous national awards including Rhodes Scholarships, Goldwater Scholarships, Truman Scholarships, and memberships on the USA Today Academic All American Team.

Contact

Bobby Mathews, UA Media Relations, 205/348-4956, bwmathews1@ur.ua.edu

Source

Dr. Richard C. Fording, UA political political science professor, rcfording@ua.edu; Dr. Stephen Borrelli, UA political science professor, sborrell@ua.edu; Dr. George Hawley, UA political science assistant professor, ghawley@ua.edu