Look for Bump in State’s GDP, Employment in 2013

For the 32nd consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year.

Alabama’s gross domestic product, the market value of goods and services produced and often considered an indicator of the state’s standard of living, should grow by about 1.5 to 2.0 percent in 2013, predicts a University of Alabama economist.

Ahmad Ijaz, an economic analyst at The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research, says transportation equipment manufacturing, which includes auto manufacturing, will be one of the thriving industries.

“Relatively strong sales of vehicles produced in Alabama are expected to continue, albeit at a slightly slower pace than seen in 2012 or during the first half of 2012,” Ijaz says.

He also expects non-farm employment for the year to increase 1.0 to 1.5 percent, about 15,000 to 20,000 net new jobs.

“Most of the job gains will be in the leisure and hospitality industry, primarily restaurants, social assistance and other health-care services, retail trade, and transportation equipment manufacturing,” he says.

Except for the state’s automotive sector, which pays relatively high wages, most of the jobs will be added in administrative support services, social assistance and other health-care- related businesses, and food services.

One of the biggest risks to the nation’s economic growth remains Europe’s financial and debt crises, and with the European economies sliding into a deeper recession, it could have a significant impact on the U.S. economic growth, particularly the domestic manufacturing industries, says Ijaz.

With exports and business-spending no longer major drivers in the recovery, and a looming “fiscal cliff,” national growth is expected to slow to approximately 1.8 to 2.2 percent in 2013.