Alabama Governor’s Race to Pit Davis Against Byrne, UA Political Scientist Predicts

Bradley Byrne, the former chancellor of the Alabama Department of Postsecondary Education, and U.S. Rep. Artur Davis figure to face off in November 2010 for the post of governor of Alabama, but both face significant challenges in the upcoming primaries, a University of Alabama political scientist says.

Davis, a Democrat, faces a primary battle in June 2010 against state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Davis is attempting to become the first African-American governor of Alabama.

“I think there’s a strong chance that Artur Davis will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff,” says Dr. David Lanoue, chair of UA’s political science department. “Obviously, Ron Sparks is a formidable candidate who’s been shown to be a good statewide vote-getter, but I think Davis has a well-organized campaign. It’s expected that he’ll do well with African-American voters, and I think he will win the Democratic nomination.”

Byrne, a Republican, is running against a large field that includes state Rep. Dr. Robert Bentley, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, real estate developer Tim James, former State Economic Development Director Bill Johnson and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.

“The Republican race is, of course, a little more complicated,” Lanoue says. “I think Davis will end up running against Bradley Byrne, who seems to be the establishment Republican choice. But there are enough big names in that race that, assuming nobody drops out, I imagine it will go to a runoff.”

Lanoue notes that Moore, who ran for governor in 2006, may have to share the vote from members of the religious right with James, thus hampering his campaign. A dark horse to watch might be Bentley, a Tuscaloosa doctor.

“The smart money says that James will be one of Byrne’s strongest opponents, but I don’t think he’ll get the nomination,” Lanoue says. “But, I do think that Dr. Bentley’s stature will grow over the course of the campaign, and he will emerge as a more serious, competitive candidate than he is now.”

Lanoue predicts that, although 2010 is considered an off-year election without a presidential contest headlining the tickets, voter interest in Alabama should be strong for the statewide races, particularly if Davis draws in African-American voters.

“Politics is the second state sport after football,” Lanoue says. “So if you put a gubernatorial race on the ballot, you’ll draw a lot of interest. You won’t get a presidential-year turnout, but you will get a fairly good share of voters to turn out.”