Educated Guesses 2010

For the 29th consecutive year, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year. While these “educated guesses” don’t always come true, our track record over the years has been good.

So, what’s ahead for 2010? Look for President Barack Obama to rethink his legislative strategy, the term “social media” to fade while the use of the technology behind it accelerates, smaller vehicles, a sluggish economy, budget-based fashion, steady gas prices and much more.

Obama to Rethink Legislative Strategy in 2010

After a year of congressional battles over health-care bills, President Barack Obama will become more proactive in sending his own legislation to Congress, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts. Obama’s strategy for health care reform in 2009 relied heavily on congressional Democrats to develop their own ideas, but this process caused too much uncertainty among the media and the public. “I think he is going to rethink his strategy, and he’ll trust the Democratic leadership a little less,” says Dr. Stephen Borrelli, associate professor of political science. “He’s going to make sure there’s more focus on the issues he wants, so he’ll go back to the practice of sending specific proposals and draft legislation to Congress. The Democratic leadership isn’t going to like it.”
Contact: Dr. Stephen Borrelli, 205/348-3802, sborrelli@bama.ua.edu

Thawing North to Provoke Conflict among Nations in 2010

Conflict in the chilly Arctic Circle among Canada, Russia, Greenland and the United States will heat up beginning in 2010, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts. Dr. Douglas Gibler, associate professor of political science, says that as ice melts in the Arctic region, islands are appearing and areas once inaccessible to development are opening up. So the stakes for nations whose borders touch the area are high. “Russia already has laid claim to a lot of territory,” Gibler says. “Greenland is newly independent from Denmark, and they have forsworn their subsidies from Denmark, and they think they can get their resources from the north to support themselves. So you’re going to have all sorts of territorial claims, and boundary disputes are among the most significant correlates of conflict.” Additionally, Gibler sees the conflict with the Taliban in Afghanistan deteriorating. “It’s going to be status quo or worse in Afghanistan, most likely a little bit worse,” Gibler says. “I don’t think the U.S. wants to move into Pakistan.”
Contact: Dr. Doug Gibler, 205/348-3808, doug.gibler@gmail.com

Social Media’s Popularity to Make the Term Obsolete

Social media platforms, such as MySpace, Facebook and Twitter, have changed the way people communicate and behave. As more people use these platforms, they will begin moving away from using the term “social media” in the new year, predicts Dr. Karla Gower, associate professor of advertising and public relations at The University of Alabama. “‘New media,’ its predecessor, is already passé, and the idea of ‘social media’ will soon be yesterday’s news, too,” she says.
Contact: Dr. Karla Gower, 205/348-0132, gower@apr.ua.edu

‘Techno-shopping’ to Grow in 2010

Look for an increase in “techno-shopping” in coming months, says Dr. Kristy Reynolds, Bruno Associate Professor of Marketing at The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. “Many small businesses that can’t afford big ad budgets are using Twitter to reach their long-time customers,” Reynolds says. “Customers can register to follow the company on Twitter, and the company Tweets these customers on things such as price promotions, new merchandise arrivals and special events. Larger companies, such as Best Buy, will increase their usage of social media also. And, with more shoppers choosing to shop online, many companies will invest more time, effort and resources into this area, Reynolds predicts. Other retailing trends Reynolds expects are leaner inventories, urban locations and smaller stores.
Contact: Dr. Kristy E. Reynolds, 205/348-0050, kreynold@cba.ua.edu

Alabama Governor’s Race to Pit Davis Against Byrne

Bradley Byrne, the former chancellor of the Alabama Department of Postsecondary Education, and U.S. Rep. Artur Davis are likely to face off in Alabama’s November 2010 gubernatorial election, but both face significant challenges in the upcoming primaries, a University of Alabama political scientist says. “I think there’s a strong chance that Artur Davis will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff,” says Dr. David Lanoue, chair of UA’s political science department. “The Republican race is, of course, a little more complicated,” Lanoue says. “I think Davis will end up running against Bradley Byrne, who seems to be the establishment Republican choice. But, there are enough big names in that race that, assuming nobody drops out, I imagine it will go to a runoff.”
Contact: Dr. David Lanoue, 205/348-5981, dlanoue@ua.edu

Let’s Skip Next Year and Jump to 2011, Economically-Speaking

We can’t skip over the coming year, but if we could we would find 2011 a lot better year, economically-speaking, says Ahmad Ijaz, economic analyst at the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama. “The Alabama economy will grow only about 1.8 percent in 2010 following a decline of 2.1 percent in 2009,” Ijaz says. Ah, but what about 2011? “We think the economy will grow about 3.7 percent in 2011,” he says. He also expects non-farm employment to decline by 0.1 percent next year, but to increase 1.2 percent in 2011. Manufacturing payrolls will likely decline about 2.0 percent through 2010, followed by an increase of 0.6 percent in 2011. Manufacturing industries are expected to lose almost 4,800 jobs in 2010 and gain 1,400 jobs in 2011. Alabama’s gross domestic product, or GDP, is expected to begin to expand in 2010, although the growth will be sluggish.
Contact: Ahmad Ijaz, 205/348-2955, aijaz@cba.ua.edu

Alabama to Lose Millions of Federal Dollars through Census Undercount

Alabama’s population will be undercounted in the 2010 census, says Annette Jones Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama. “So what, you ask?” Watters says. “It means millions of lost dollars in federal domestic assistance for our state over the coming decade.” And if past experience means anything, some of the most unresponsive will be people who don’t own their own homes, college students, people of minority races, high school dropouts, people living in poverty, and people whose first language is not English, Watters predicts. And those are often the people who need the federal assistance most.
Contact: Annette Watters, 205/348-6191, awatters@cba.ua.edu

Goodbye Fashionista, Hello Recessionista

The rise of the “recessionista” will continue in 2010, predicts Brian Taylor, instructor of clothing, textiles and interior design at The University of Alabama. Recessionistas are able to stick to a strict budget while dressing stylishly; a feat not easily accomplished by their counterparts of high-priced apparel, the recently named fashionistas. Looking sleek and tailored while saving a few pennies will be the biggest concern of the fashion-forward consumer next year. Both retailers and shoppers will look for more affordable options as they move away from frumpy, high waists in favor of a more form-flattering look. “I think a lot of women realized that the empire waist, the very high waist, made them look pregnant all the time, so expect to see that look go away,” says Taylor. “Instead, everything, including men’s clothing, will have a more polished, tailored appearance with sharp angles at the shoulders and more architectural lines.” Fashion will not be a casualty of the economic downturn, Taylor says. “Thankfully, buying cheap doesn’t mean sacrificing style.”
Contact: Brian Taylor, 205/348-6020, btaylor@ches.ua.edu

How Much Will I Spend at the Pump in 2010?

Demand for oil will not recover significantly until the world economy improves, so there will not be supply problems that drive up the price of oil in the coming year, says a University of Alabama engineering professor who closely follows the markets. “The value of the dollar will most likely languish for some time, so even in the face of reduced demand, the price of oil will not decline significantly,” says Dr. Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical engineering. “This means that gasoline will remain in the range of $2.25 to $2.75 for the coming year,” Clark predicts.
Contact: Dr. Peter Clark, 205/348-1682 (office), 205/246-3607 (cellular), or pclark@eng.ua.edu

Hybrids, Diesels and Fuel Economy…Hot Picks for Automotive 2010

The domestic auto fleet will change quickly, predicts The University of Alabama’s Dr. Clark Midkiff. Corporate average fuel economy regulations that were accelerated by President Obama’s administration will soon impact vehicle design. By 2016, new cars must average 42 miles per gallon, new trucks, including SUVs, will need to average 27 mpg, and a company’s overall product fleet average must exceed 35.5 mpg. “Given that it requires several years to develop a new vehicle and that there are intermediate mileage milestones to meet, I believe the American vehicle fleet will be changing quickly,” says Midkiff, professor of mechanical engineering and director of UA’s Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies. “We should expect smaller vehicles, somewhat reduced peak power, more hybrids, more diesels, more plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles, and likely, fewer and more expensive trucks and SUVs on the showroom floor,” explains Midkiff.
Contact: Dr. Clark Midkiff, 205/348-1645 (office), 205/454-8446 (cellular), cmidkiff@eng.ua.edu

Next-Generation Air Transportation System Will Ultimately Succeed

The Next Generation Air Transportation System, known as NextGen, is due for national implementation in stages between now and 2018. “I am predicting ultimate success and a system that will provide a much safer travel environment,” says Dr. David Brown, a University of Alabama professor who has used data mining to help improve FAA safety databases. To implement this new system, the Federal Aviation Administration will undertake a wide-ranging transformation of the entire air transportation system. The NextGen system moves from the current ground-based technologies to more dynamic satellite-based technologies. “If history is any indicator, I would predict it will be a complete flop because they have tried this recently, but to no avail,” says Brown. “Given that they have to upgrade, however, I would think that perhaps they have learned from their past mistakes and instead of a big bang approach will do some smaller scale prototyping and testing.”
Contact: Dr. David Brown, brown@cs.ua.edu

Education Budget Cuts to Cause Increase in Mobile Technology Use

As budget cuts in education continue, we will see more use of mobile technologies in the classroom in 2010, predicts Dr. Vivian Wright, a University of Alabama educator. “The mobility that technology offers can help educators save money this upcoming year,” says Wright, associate professor of instructional technology at UA. “In today’s economy, the cost of paper can be an issue. Mobile technologies can help promote a paperless classroom.” Wright says educators will also start to see mobile devices as classroom learning opportunities. “The time is right, the technology has never been easier to use, and more students and educators have mobile access to technology at their fingertips, which, in turn, offers access to multiple and easily accessible resources that allow for collaboration, engagement and interaction.”
Contact: Dr. Vivian H. Wright, 205/348-1401, vwright@bamaed.ua.edu

Post-Graduate Education to See Increase, More College Students Going Year-Round in 2010

Colleges and universities will expand their graduate education offerings in 2010, predicts Dr. Stephen Katsinas, professor of higher education administration and director of The University of Alabama’s Education Policy Center. “With economic data strongly supporting the idea that the premium for advanced education is greater today than it ever has been, I predict this will spur additional expansion of graduate education,” he says. Katsinas also predicts more college students will go year-round to school. “I predict that the new Pell Grant, which allows year-round college attendance, will spur a significant increase in summer-school enrollments, as a vehicle to move more people through in three years,” he says.
Contact: Dr. Stephen Katsinas, 205/348-2470, skatsina@bamaed.ua.edu

More Talk of Obesity, but Little Action

Added attention to obesity will inspire some to make better food choices in 2010, but others —not so much, predicts Rebecca Kelly, director of health promotion and wellness at The University of Alabama. “We’ve seen a lot of focus on how obesity affects life expectancy, and how healthcare providers and insurance companies are adjusting rates based on their client’s likelihood of obesity. That tends to get the public’s attention.” Unfortunately, the public won’t put that information to good use as long as the practice of making healthful choices maintains the reputation of being a chore rather than a choice. “Right now, there are too many road blocks to healthy foods and too few deterrents to unhealthy foods,” says Kelly as she points to a vending machine.
Contact: Rebecca Kelly, 205/348-0077, rebecca.kelly@ua.edu

Surprise, Surprise – Interest Rates to Go Up

“There is only one way that interest rates can go in the future, and that is up: They are going to increase,” says Dr. Benton Gup, professor of finance and Robert Hunt Cochrane/Alabama Bankers Chair of Banking at The University of Alabama. He notes that market rates of interest are now at record-low levels. Good news? Bad news? Both, says Gup, depending on whether you are a borrower, investor, or a lender, such as a bank. “For those who can afford to borrow money, now is a great time to lock in long-term fixed rate loans at low rates,” Gup says. The current market rate of interest on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loans is about 5 percent.
Contact: Dr. Benton Gup, 205/348-8984, bgup@cba.ua.edu