Riley to Be Re-Elected as Alabama Governor

The Alabama governor’s race will be between current Gov. Bob Riley and current Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, and Riley will win, projects Dr. David Lanoue, chair of The University of Alabama political science department.

Lanoue predicts Riley will defeat Baxley by a margin of five to 10 percentage points. “General satisfaction with the state of affairs in Alabama will propel Gov. Riley to a relatively easy November re-election,” he says. “Baxley will have a difficult time making the case for replacing Riley. With primary elections over, most Christian conservatives will return to the GOP fold. Although strong African-American support for the Democratic nominee will prevent the race from being a total blowout, Riley should coast to victory.”

The gubernatorial primaries, which will be held in June, will be different for each party. Lanoue predicts that the Democratic primary race will be close — almost too close to call — while the Republican primary will not be.

“While the former governor will prove a formidable campaigner, the stigma of indictment will be too great to overcome,” he says. “Baxley will run a low-key race, depending on positive campaign advertisements and letting the media coverage of (former Gov.) Siegelman’s legal problems speak for itself. Siegelman, on the other hand, will run a vigorous campaign and give Baxley the sort of challenge she’s never faced before. Honestly, if this one went the other way, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised.”

With a general positive outlook on the state’s economy, Riley will be a stronger campaigner than former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, Lanoue says. “Moore will work hard to expand his message beyond the ‘Ten Commandments’ issue, but he will be hard pressed to convince voters that he is more than just a one-issue candidate. Riley will defeat Moore by a substantial margin, as much as 10 points.”

Lanoue also predicts that George Wallace Jr., son of former governors George and Lurleen Wallace, will be elected lieutenant governor. “Between his strong name recognition, the lack of an incumbent in the race, the general statewide Republican trend, and the support of key national GOP leaders like John McCain, Wallace will win the Republican primary and the election in November.”

The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.