Debates to be Crucial Given Closeness of Race, Says UA Presidential Debate Expert

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – An uninspiring speaker debating a man known for verbal fumbles may not sound like riveting television, but a University of Alabama professor who authored a book on the history and influence of presidential debates says the upcoming contests could have an uncommon impact on the election’s outcome.

Debates between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry, which may begin with a Sept. 30 meeting, are particularly important to the challenger in this tightly contested race, says Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chairman of UA’s political science department.

“Clearly, the stakes are highest for John Kerry and not just because he trails in the polls,” said Lanoue, who authored “The Joint Press Conference: The History, Impact, and Prospects of American Presidential Debates” (Greenwood, 1991).

The UA political scientist said Kerry’s campaign mistakenly overemphasized their candidate’s Vietnam credentials during the Democratic convention, missing the opportunity to frame a case against Bush and failing to convince voters that Kerry has a clear plan for the economy, health-care, terrorism and Iraq.

“He squandered the opportunity to make his best case to the American people,” Lanoue said. “The debates may be his final chance to do so. If he fails, he will remain Senator Flip-Flop in the minds of many people, and even many of those who would prefer to remove George W. Bush from office may decide that a man with clear beliefs and a spotty record is preferable to a senator with no plan and no clear set of principles.”

As for the president’s campaign, Lanoue said his advisers would likely prefer dodging debates altogether.

“If they could get away with no debates at all, they would probably do so, but they probably know that such a position could make them look cowardly and cost them points in the polls. I think there is a legitimate concern that Kerry might use the debates the same way Ronald Reagan used his debate with Jimmy Carter in 1980: to focus public attention on the failures of the incumbent, and to cast himself as a viable alternative.”

Lanoue calls the debate matchup “particularly interesting” considering Bush is known for misspeaking and Kerry is labeled as an uninspiring speaker.

“George W. Bush is known as a master of malapropisms, but the truth is that he held his own with both John McCain and Al Gore in 2000. “This time, however, he is an incumbent with a record to defend, so it might be tougher to sit back and talk in generalities about being a ‘uniter’ and a ‘compassionate conservative.’

“For his part, John Kerry is an articulate, but uninspiring speaker, similar to Al Gore and Michael Dukakis, two debaters of meager success.

“I think the key will be whether Kerry (or the panelists) can trip Bush up while questioning him about his record. If they cannot, a tie always goes to the incumbent and/or frontrunner.”

Debate viewers can expect Bush to point to his resolve against terrorism, and the “mini-economic recovery,” Lanoue said. “He will take a few shots at Kerry, but, as frontrunner and incumbent, will try to stay positive and upbeat.

“John Kerry will argue that President Bush has failed on every front, domestic and international. Kerry will presumably also try to articulate his agenda for the future and convince voters that he does, indeed, have core principles.”

While debate ratings have declined over the years, key target groups will be watching and listening, the UA political scientist said.

“The debates will receive high ratings and should draw well from at least one critical group – voters who intend to go to the polls on November 2, but haven’t decided which candidate to support.”

Lanoue earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of California, San Diego, in 1982, and his doctorate from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1986. He is the author of “From Camelot to the Teflon President” and his work has appeared in such journals as the Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly and American Politics Quarterly. Lanoue, who joined UA in 2001, has previously served as chair of political science at Texas Tech University and at the University of California, Riverside.

UA’s department of political science is part of the College of Arts and Sciences, the University’s largest division and the largest public liberal arts college in the state with 6,600 students and 360 faculty. Students from the College have won numerous national awards including Rhodes Scholarships, Goldwater Scholarships, and memberships on the USA Today Academic All American Team.