Moody Economy Could Spell Reversal For Crime-Rate Trend

If the sluggish economy takes a downturn, 2001 could mark the beginning of a shift in the decade-long trend of dropping crime rates, says a University of Alabama criminal justice professor.

“If the economy begins to falter ­ and we’re seeing signs of that ­ and unemployment begins to rise, we may see a reversal in the nearly 10-year trend of decreasing crime,” said Dr. Robert Sigler, professor of criminal justice. Links have been shown, for example, between high unemployment rates ­ its accompanying stresses ­ and domestic violence, he said.

Any significant increase in crime will begin changing corrections’ emphasis toward rehabilitating offenders.

“Right now, we’re on the extreme punishment end of the punishment-treatment continuum,” Sigler said. “The justice system ­ from a corrections standpoint ­ doesn’t work well at either extreme.

“The size of federal law enforcement will continue to increase in the coming year,” Sigler said. The number of local law enforcement officers and state troopers will also grow in 2001, he said.