Few Voters Likely To Be Swayed By Presidential Debates, Says UA Political Expert

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Upcoming presidential debates are not likely to change the minds of voters, but that does not mean they are unimportant, says Dr. Patrick Cotter, a professor of political science at The University of Alabama.

“Most of the time what debates do is the important task of reinforcing what people already believe, strengthening their convictions, and motivating them to go out and vote,” Cotter said. “Those are all important things. But the number of votes swayed by debates is relatively small in most cases.

“Most people come in with a preference already,” Cotter said. “They tend to see what they want to see and forget those things they don’t want to see.”

That might be just as well, as the UA professor said he sees little connection between having good debate skills and being a good president.

Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush are scheduled to debate in Boston on Oct. 3, in Winston-Salem, N.C., on Oct. 11 and in St. Louis on Oct. 17.

Viewers should not expect the candidates to spend lots of time giving their differing opinions on the same issues, Cotter said.

“Often times they end up talking about different things because they have different strengths and weaknesses. Look for Al Gore to talk about issues such as education and health care, and look for George Bush to talk more about taxes and character.

“They are not really debates ­ in the sense of a give and take ­ they are generally more like side-by-side speeches,” Cotter said.

Gore is generally seen as the better debater of the two, but Cotter said the candidate perceived as having the best debate skills also has the most pressure.

“Expectations for Gore are real high, and expectations for Bush are low, so some say Gore can’t win and Bush can’t lose.”

The vice presidential debate, scheduled for Oct. 5, will likely have even less influence on voters, Cotter said.

“It probably has almost no impact on the presidential election. It may have important consequences for future elections if either of these vice presidential candidates are around later on.”